Anticipatory Thinking and Sensemaking for Educational Design in an Era of Disruption: General Morphological Analysis Applied to Global Service Learning
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Authors
Mullens, Michael
Author ORCID Profiles (clickable)
Degree
Doctor of Professional Practice
Grantor
Otago Polytechnic
Date
2025
Supervisors
Mann, Samuel
Roodt, Henk
Crossley, Emilie
Roodt, Henk
Crossley, Emilie
Type
Doctoral Thesis
Ngā Upoko Tukutuku (Māori subject headings)
Keyword
anticipatory thinking
sensemaking
educational design
disruption
morphological analysis
Global Service Learning
sensemaking
educational design
disruption
morphological analysis
Global Service Learning
ANZSRC Field of Research Code (2020)
Citation
Mullens, M. (2025). Anticipatory Thinking and Sensemaking for Educational Design in an Era of Disruption: General Morphological Analysis Applied to Global Service Learning [Doctoral thesis, Otago Polytechnic]. Research Bank. https://doi.org/10.34074/thes.7062
Abstract
This thesis presents an autoethnographic exploration of anticipatory thinking and sensemaking in educational design amid disruption, with a focus on improving Global Service Learning (GSL) for engineering students. Originally centered on enhancing GSL experiences, the research was significantly redirected by the COVID-19 pandemic, offering valuable insights into designing education for uncertain and rapidly changing environments. In navigating today’s volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, educators face ‘wicked problems’—deeply interconnected, value-laden challenges that resist straightforward solutions. Addressing these requires a shift in approach. Anticipatory design thinking, sensemaking, and futures studies offer powerful tools for engaging with such complexity. Anticipatory design involves envisioning future scenarios to guide present decisions; sensemaking enables individuals to interpret dynamic environments; and futures studies support both through forecasting and scenario planning. GSL, traditionally a collaborative effort between students and communities (e.g., engineering students designing infrastructure), faces new challenges in VUCA conditions. These include integrating GSL into curricula, preparing students—especially for remote engagement—and ensuring meaningful, equitable learning experiences. Critical considerations include project duration, suitability, and avoiding colonial dynamics in partnerships. Recognising education as a complex adaptive system, this research draws on systems thinking to respond to D-VUCA conditions (disruption, volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity). Systems thinking, with its emphasis on interconnections and feedback loops, supports resilience and adaptive change in educational contexts. Conventional planning models often fall short in addressing GSL’s complexity under VUCA conditions. While suspending GSL until stability returns is one option, it is increasingly impractical. Instead, this thesis advocates for developing flexible, responsive GSL models tailored to VUCA realities—models that reflect both student and community needs. To support decision-making in this context, the study applies General Morphological Analysis (GMA), a non-quantitative method for structuring and analysing complex problems across technological, organisational, and social dimensions. GMA facilitates sensemaking by uncovering assumptions and unknowns, which are often more critical than the models themselves. The research involved participatory development of four scenarios, two multidimensional GSL frameworks, and associated response descriptors. Initial recommendations emerged from this process, followed by a critical assessment that highlighted areas for further inquiry, such as the interplay between dependency and learning. To validate these insights, 31 interviews were conducted with GSL practitioners. Thematic analysis confirmed the relevance of the GMA model and informed final recommendations for GSL in a VUCA world. Ultimately, this thesis underscores the value of reflective practice and iterative research in educational design. By integrating anticipatory thinking, sensemaking, and futures studies, it offers a robust framework for addressing wicked problems and fostering resilience in global education.
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CC BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International