Simulating consumer behaviour towards hydrogen heavy vehicles
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Authors
Abdulwahid, A.
Leaver, Jonathan
Shafiei, E.
Jack, M.
Leaver, Jonathan
Shafiei, E.
Jack, M.
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Date
2024-11
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Conference Contribution - Oral Presentation
Ngā Upoko Tukutuku (Māori subject headings)
Keyword
New Zealand
heavy vehicle fleet
hydrogen as fuel
hybrid vehicles
purchase intention
consumer behaviour
decision making
UniSyD model
heavy vehicle fleet
hydrogen as fuel
hybrid vehicles
purchase intention
consumer behaviour
decision making
UniSyD model
ANZSRC Field of Research Code (2020)
Citation
Abdulwahid, A., Leaver, J., Shafiei, E., & Jack, M. (2024, November 21-22) Simulating consumer behaviour towards hydrogen heavy vehicles [Paper presentation] Otago Energy Research Centre 18th Annual Conference, Dunedin, New Zealand
https://hdl.handle.net/10652/6686
Abstract
The growing need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors like heavy transport, has increased interest in alternative fuel technologies such as hydrogen vehicles. Despite their potential, widespread adoption of hydrogen vehicles is hindered by challenges like capital costs. fuel prices and a lack of refuelling infrasture. These barriers critically influence consumer bheaviour and vehicle adoption trends.
This study utilizes the system dynamics model UniSyD_NZ to simulate the adoption of hydrogen and conventional diesel heavy-duty vehicles in New Zealand from 2015 to 2050. Using a nested multinomial logit approach, the model evaluates vehicle uptake across various scenarios. Two distinct utility functions are incorporated to reflect different consumer priorities. The first utility function focuses on fuel availability, addressing concerns about limited hydrogyn refuelling infrastructure. The second utility function considers economic factors, including annual refuelling cost, which is based on four main factors: distance to the nearest station, refuelling and queueing times, and fuel availability risks. Results indicate that hydrogen-diesel dual-fuel vehicles can act as a transitional technolgy, mitigating early adoption barriers where fuel availability if a key concern.
Conversely, in scenarios where fuelling cost dominates consumer decisions, hydrogen vehicle adoption becomes less reliant on dual-fuel vehicles. Nevertheless, the introduction of dual-fuel vehicles significantly reduces the market share of conventional diesel vehicles, contributing to efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions.
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