Analysing and forecasting daily water level fluctuations in water supply dams

Abstract

Dams play a vital role in supplying fresh water to many cities all over the world. With increasing pressure and demand for natural resources, water supply remain a scarce resource worldwide. During times of uncertainty, predicting the future availability of water supply by considering various hydrometric and anthropogenic variables will provide a framework for future scenario forecasting and a model-based approach to sustainable water management. To this end, this project proposes a multivariate time series analysis and forecasting model to both analyse and forecast daily water level fluctuations in three water supply dams-Upper Nihotupu, Waitākere and Mangatangi, located in the Auckland and Waikato regions of New Zealand.