Queensland fruit fly invasion of New Zealand : predicting area suitability under future climate change scenarios

Abstract

The Queensland fruit fly Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is consistently described as the most damaging pest to Australia’s horticulture industries with an annual economic cost averaging around $25.7 million from 2003 to 2008 . In this paper, and corresponding online map, the authors discuss the significant risk to New Zealand of invasion by this species; the potential effects of climate change on the distribution and impacts of invasive species are well known. This paper and eMedia employs species distribution modelling using Maxent to predict the suitability of New Zealand to the Queensland fruit fly based on known occurrences worldwide and Bioclim climatic layers.