Predictors of functional improvement in people with chronic low back pain following a graded programme of movement control exercises

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: i) To determine predictors of change in disability of people with chronic low back pain following a graded programme of movement control exercises and ii) to develop a simple clinical rule that predicts outcome.

METHODS: Fifty‐five people from a community sample with non‐specific chronic low back pain were examined before undergoing a graded 6‐week programme of movement control exercises. Predictors of change in disability, as measured by the Patient‐Specific Functional Scale, were identified through regression analysis and used to develop a clinical prediction rule.

RESULTS: Clinically important improvement in disability was predicted by four variables that explained 48% of the variance in outcome (P<.001): gradual rather than sudden onset of low back pain, patient‐specific functional score <3.7 points, absence of aberrant motions on forward bending, and body mass index >24.5. Failure to show clinically meaningful improvement was predicted by three variables that explained 40% of the variance in outcome (P<.001): sudden onset of low back pain, patient‐specific functional score ≥3.7, and difference between left and right active straight leg raise >7°.

CONCLUSION: A combination of five, easily measured variables are able to predict disability outcome following a graded programme of movement control exercises in people with chronic low back pain.